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Providio’s Daily Futures Market Commentary for April 26, 2012

Johnny Evans | Friday 27 April 2012 ( 0 Comment)
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Currencies:26Apr Quiet news flow (so far) and a somewhat quiet economic calendar opened .

See below for specifics.

The Yen will experience a large dose of economic data and the BOJ announcement.

As we have mentioned in past comments, the “authorities” will make forays into the traded markets to prevent collapse, using more than actual monetary policy execution, but also the power of the press to change market conditions. This effect is maximized as the US Fed is now in a situation where another round of QE is being publicly debated.

This is another example of our common theme of the push-pull of the European and American debt/economic situations trading places on the front burner.

Risk-off trading will still tend to favor the USD and Japanese Yen.



Aussie: 26Apr The currency is sustaining yesterday afternoon’s break out (and settlement) above our declining trend line drawn from the 2/29 peak (1.0280). This targets the 38.2% retracement (1.0405) of the decline since the end of Feb. There are also plenty of additional rest stops at 50% retracement (1.0435) and the preceding series of highs: 27Mar 1.0461; 19Mar 1.0529; 08Mar 1.0552; 05Mar 1.0611.

We see 1.0180 a significant support level and 1.0150 below that.

Watch the declining 21-day moving average (1.0270) for support. We also continue to eye the relatively flat 200-day Moving Average. The Aussie has periodically struggled at that level for almost a month. Stay attuned to directional indications for global trade, especially out of Asia, as that is what Australia’s economy depends on as a commodity exporter.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 5-year pattern trends generally higher until April 30th but with more day-to-day choppiness. The 15-year pattern is in a rising trend until May 4th. The 30–Year pattern is consolidating before heading higher on 01May.



[B]British: [/B]26Apr The second consecutive month of GDP contraction signals “recession” for the U.K, but opens the door for more stimulus and seems to be supporting the currency, as of this writing:

[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...e-s-weale-says[/url]......

We update our noted levels from yesterday’s Comment:

The 31Oct high (161.58).
Rising trend line resistance that extends back to last Dec (161.40).
The +2 STD above the 21-day moving average (162.00). These Bollinger Bands are widening.

All of our technicals point to higher action. This break out above targets the Aug high at 1.6500. A failure keeps the market inside of what may be a rising wedge formation that is currently bound by 1.5870 to the downside. Of concern is the continued Overbought condition (currently 84). The 200-day moving average is trying to turn higher after falling since mid November.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns are biased to rising action until April 30.

Canadian: 26Apr The market is riding the expanding +2 Standard Deviation (1.0160) over the 21-day moving average (1.0045), trying to sustain yesterday’s break out above an area where it has struggled going back to late Feb. Watch for developing Overbought conditions (currently 74).

Rising trend line resistance (currently at 1.0300) extends back to early Dec.

If the global economic outlook improves, the Loonie should be able to sustain this break out above this range. Speculation that the BOC will remove any accommodation would also be a positive factor, although their next scheduled announcement is not until 05June.

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns are in a positive bias that lasts well into May.

 Dollar Index:
26Apr Modest weakness continues, threatening the 03Apr low (78.795).

Since peaking on 4/6 and failing on 4/16, DX has been in a short-term falling pattern. A move below the recent low would keep it in this formation and target the 200-day moving average (78.20) and the 29Feb low (78.12).

Trend, Momentum, ROC, and RSI are all falling, but watch developing Oversold conditions (currently 30).

Watch for any evidence the Dollar is not the safe haven under crisis market conditions. This would change existing assumptions dramatically.

Seasonal Snapshot: All 3 patterns exhibiting falling action seasonal patterns until April 30th.
 

Euro-FX: 26Apr Disappointing European economic sentiment had the Euro on its heels, but the US session “melt up” has the currency registering another daily higher high and low. All of our technicals point higher, but look for resistance to start showing up, probably coupled with a resumption of debt crisis news, near 1.3250 then at the +2STD (1.3335). The 200-day moving average is well above (1.3495) and continues to fall.

The light economic calendar will start to perk up next week with consumer and manufacturing data featured.
Volatility has been falling recently and is now firmly in the Low range (-1 STD or lower below the 150-day Moving Average).

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns are trending higher until the end of April.

Yen: 26Apr The impending BOJ announcement will be accompanied by a large dose of economic data for March:

· CPI

· Household spending

· Employment situation

· Industrial production

· Retail sales

The currency still has not been able to sustain a break out above the 38.2% retracement (1.2360) Feb through Mar dip.

With the BOJ on record as looking to weaken the Yen, this looks to us as if the Yen is due to roll over and resume its falling trend. Our Trend and Momentum indicators are poised to roll over as well.

A return of the recent strength would target the 50% retracement (12510). This level coincides with a triple top (23, 24 & 28Feb) and may offer some resistance.

Volatility is rising towards the +1 Standard Deviation from our Average measurement. This is where we classify it as High.

Seasonal Snapshot: Modest weakness in all three patterns will turn positive for a week on 1May, then consolidation into the first part of June.

Energies:

Petroleum: 26Apr

Crude:Crude has been showing some counter-trend strength for the last 2 weeks or so. This has taken the June contract up to the 38.2% retracement from the 3/1-4/10 sell-off. If Crude fails to rally through and hold above that level, just above $105, we would look for a further sell-off of between $9-$10 from the point it breaks out lower.

Our rising Trend indicator is slated to cross the still falling 21-day moving average. In countering our negative outlook above, the last time the Trend crossed the 21-day moving average going higher, Crude was in the mist of a $10 rally. On another note, a look at volatility through the use of Standard Deviation measures around the 21-day moving average shows a serious contraction of volatility. Previously, this has occurred at or immediately preceding market directional moves.

In commenting on this, we would state the market’s recent bias is generally negative for fundamental reasons. We maintain that, absent any events driving prices higher, this situation should continue.

Products: Attention turns to the June contracts.

RBOB is shrugging off a larger than expected drop in DOE stocks, but supplies are still quite high and remain in the upper limit of their average range. Due to materially declining demand, RBOB has been falling at various rates. Right now, our negatively biased directional indicators are waning in their falling strength. Additionally, it has bounced out of its recent Oversold levels.

We show support at 3.1200, 3.1000 and 3.0750. Resistance should be offered at the recent triple top (20, 23 & 24Apr) at 3.1500.

The June contract recently tested the –2STD (3.0710) of its 21-day moving average (3.2215). It has strayed below for brief periods of time this month.

Heat is stuck in a consolidation range bound by 3.0900-3.1900. Heating Oil’s behavior has been similar to Crude’s in magnitude.

Seasonal Snapshot: After a brief pause, all three Petroleum contracts’ patterns are in an upward bias until the end of April.



 NatGas:
  26Apr Based on the June contact, while the recent technical bias has been higher, cracks are appearing in that picture again. This almost entirely based on the supply side as the low usage rates this past Winter coincided with a surge in US production. Recent pronouncements of production cuts have not taken root yet and the pressure on prices has remained in place.

Today’s action is worrisome as well. A material increase in Volume occurred on a day when a decent rally resulted in reversing action. June’s 2.25 level, indeed 2.20 as well, has acted as a cap on end of day pricing. From our perspective, until this level is pierced and held, whatever positive action and bias is suspect at best.

We remind readers of the levels at multi year lows in the most active contract: Jan 2002: 1.90; Sep 2001 1.87; Feb 1999 1.62.

Look for supply issues to continue to dominate, as demand didn’t really materialize this year with the extremely warm winter.

We offer a story indicating a price collapse might be necessary to fix this market:

[url]http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/04/03...l-gas-may-need[/url]......

We also remind readers of our previous “shoulder season” notes:

“The dynamic for NatGas should shift to Spring shoulder behavior fairly soon. As the current storage is at record levels for this time of year, we expect to see storage rapidly fill and Summer supply levels should be comfortably high in June. As drilling starts to wane, care should be taken on any short side trades. A seriously hot Summer would materially increase demand as electricity usage would soar. This could shift this market to a bullish tone rapidly and unexpectedly. We feel position traders are best served by exploring trades that involve spreads of either futures calendar or selling premium.”

Seasonal Snapshot: Both long and short-term patterns are entering a period of generally sideways action with an increase of volatility around that general trend until May 14th. From then until May 19th, a falling trend is in place.



 Equities:

26Apr All three of our tracked markets are shaking off a poor Claims number (more claims with upward revisions to prior releases) and grabbing on to more Pending home sales than expected. Our technical indicators have flipped back to positive, as the Fed has come riding to the rescue again.

Since all three have been stuck inside of the 21-day Bollinger Bands for the entire year, we remind readers of the +2STD above; 21-day moving averages; and –2STD below, respectively:

June SP: 1413; 1381.75; 1351

June Dow: 13230; 12960; 12690

June NASDAQ: 2791; 2714; 2635

After rolling over, it should also be noted that all three’s moving averages are trying to turn higher. We also see the following levels as important:

Seasonal Snapshot: The 5yr patterns of all three markets is in a pronounced upward bias until early May. The 15&30-yrs’ follow suit, but are not nearly as steep.



 Grains:
 
26Apr A struggling consolidation day in all 3 of our tracked markets. Volume dropped materially as well, lending further validity to the consolidation call.

 Corn: 26Apr Today’s action was deemed bullish on the wires. This was attributed to the tightness of supplies and continuing substantial demand. We see it somewhat differently. The market’s sizable drop in Volume speaks more to a consolidating market. We see today’s action as having tested an intermediate support level at 603 and an intermediate resistance at 608. We see 600 remaining as psychological support. Tuesday’s high, just below 622 should act as a more robust resistance.

Trend and Momentum are still negative in profile, but our more sensitive ROC and RSI are mixed.

We still believe Corn is looking suspiciously like a bearish pennant setting up for another move lower. Recent waning negative Momentum is one large sell-off day from resuming a more negative profile again. RSI still looks close to rolling over.

We ask again, is this the end of a bear market rally and are we now slated for a more serious decline?

What we still know is our negatively biased primary technicals remain in place. We feel a break below 603-604 constitutes a reasonable chance a breakout to new lows is underway. Given recent action, a move targeting 550 would not surprise us. Today’s action constitutes at probe only.

Volatility remains near the High level we regard as the first level when option-selling opportunities become more attractive. New crops Volatility is still near average.

Traders may wish to heed ourcharacterizatio
n
of the seasonal below.

May filled the gap below the 4/2 low. This sets up the Corn, should a bottom be put in, to head higher. We remind our readers to pay attention to weather.

Seasonal Snapshot: 5-year heads modestly higher until Apr 5, then sideways until Apr 10. Both the 15 and 30-year patterns are entering into broad, modest declining periods until April 28. April 10-12 offers a brief, more negative period.
 
Soybeans:  26Apr July tested support at 1465 and held. It then followed that morning test by rallying to the 1480-1481 resistance where it ended the session. With the materially lower Volume, we see today’s action as consolidating recent bullish action. All our directional indicators remain positively biased. If we see a material rally accompanied by strong Volume, this should put to rest any thoughts of a vulnerable old-crop market.

The new-crop November paints a decidedly different picture, with a material fall in price. Our primary indicators, trend and momentum remain negatively biased. ROC looks to be slowing its ascent. However, RSI remains in a rising mode.

Fundamental dynamics seem skewed to the upside with demand from China and the ongoing South American supply issues dominating he headlines for Soy.

We see support near 1444, 1440, then about 1420.

Of note, we are paying attention to the pricing in Soybeans as particularly high on a 10-year most active chart. We believe the Grains, in general, but Soybeans especially, are at risk of highly volatile moves over the Summer months. It is true this is nothing new during the growing season. However, the current environment, with enormous shifts in acreage allocation coupled with the global market uncertainties, makes us nervous. If you’d like to see a 10-year chart, please contact us.***

We still maintain that until we see a material move higher from here, we go back to the WSJ story we highlighted from last Tuesday, 4/3:

A story we saw today on another newsletter does add a distinct note of caution to the recent action. The story noted the WSJ posted a story about the record highs in grains. It then went on to state that this type of mainstream media story typically showed up at the end of a bull rally. Additionally it stated in its opinion that the market seemed to be stretched.

Despite our worries as expressed, this market’s Technicals (as stated above) still point higher.

Volatility isn’t great for options purchases, but it isn’t very high, either.

Seasonal Snapshot: Seasonal patterns are jerking around with a modestly negative bias until approximately 4/12. On 4/12, the 5 and 15-year patterns bottom and head higher. The 5-year rises until 4/15 and the 15-year until 4/25. The 30-year is biased gently lower until 4/16, where it then shifts to a rising trend until 4/25. Upon peaking between 4/22 and 4/25, all 3 patterns drop sharply until 4/28. We will be shifting to tracking the July contract in that time frame.

[B]Wheat:[/B] 26Apr July’s action today was bullish but we would like to see an increase in Volume to validate the move. We are seeing a turning in technical, with Trend looking like it will soon join the positively biased Momentum, RCO, and RSI.

Trend and RSI are a bit vulnerable however, as a material sell-off would likely cause a turn back to a more negative profile.

Watch for seasonal updates later in the week.

We leave in place our comment from 4/5 as it addresses longer-term patterns we’re noticing:

Additionally, on our Momentum measure going back to late December, each positive shift has peaked at earlier and lower. This is in a period of a modestly negative bias in what has been largely range trading.

May’s Volatility has peaked just below the High range (< 1 STD).

Pay attention to the harvest in Winter Wheat as it moves ahead of schedule due to warm weather and the plants benefit from rain in both Europe and the US.

This market has been in a gently falling bearish pattern for the last 2 months since peaking on 2/1. On a longer-term view, the bearish dynamic has been in place, albeit with a sizable range, since February 2011.

Volatility is now close to High (> 1 STD higher than Average) indicating there may be opportunities to sell premium in options.

Seasonal Snapshot: All 3 patterns enter a brief upwardly biased period until April 5th. The 5-year then continues in a pattern that ultimately peaks on April 25th. The longer 15 and 30-year patterns change direction on the 5th, entering into a very modest declining period until the same April 25th.


 Interest Rates:

26Apr Early action has Treasuries resuming their upward bias in pricing. Both Bonds and 10-Yr Notes are pressuring their recent highs. This, after both spiked lower into levels seen earlier in the month. Their rapid recovery and subsequent positive bias speaks to a market still spooked by recent uneven US data and weekly doses of debt crisis news from Europe.

An additional positive dynamic was added into the mix by this morning disappointing Jobless Claims; the latest if a troubling string of news indicting a waning of the economic “growth” story.

Bonds- Positive Trend essentially trumps the waning positive Momentum and falling ROC and RSI. Additionally, with yesterday’s test of lows and ensuing rally were on substantially higher Volume, adding credibility to the move higher. Watch the action as it approaches 143-06. If this level is breached, look to 144 as the next resistance. We see support at 142-12, the 142-00.

The +1 STD from the 21-day moving average has been acting as a rising support level since early April.

Tens- Tens are exhibiting similar behavior as the Bonds. Its chart action is modestly shallower but remains finding support in the +1 STD of the 21-day moving average. The Tens action has been confined largely within a rising channel that seems to be developing an atypical rising flag. If this plays out bullishly, and breaks out to the upside, look for a move of about 1-08 higher.

We see resistance at today’s highs of 132-04 and then 132-12. We see support at levels coinciding with our Trend indicator and a Trend line drawn from early April post-rally lows.

First support at 131-21,and it drops by about 2 ticks per day down to just above 131-00.

On a continuation chart, horizontal trend line resistance (132-10) extends back to Dec.

Twos- With the uneven negatively biased data, the Twos are probing into the range that defines the upper levels of pricing from late January and early February. The support we identified yesterday, at 110-07.5 remains in place. We see 110-08.75 as a legitimate resistance level above.

Twos remain Overbot, but its RSI has eased off higher levels.

Like the other tracked Treasuries, its action of late has served to ease the recent positive bias.

Bunds (10-yr) Yesterday’s post-FOMC action did test the 140-00 level, and, like the US Treasuries, bounced quite sharply. However, it should be noted its recent positive bias is easing noticeably. Its directional indicators remain vulnerable to rolling over, flattening out over the past week or so. The action over the last 2 days has brought its pricing back into the range between the 1 and 2 Standard Deviations levels based on the 21-day moving average.

Schatz (2-yr) Yesterday’s FOMC announcement essentially ensures a large flow of liquidity into the markets. By default, this takes pressure off the shorter-term Interest rate products, the Schatz included. The reaction has driven its pricing above the +1 Standard Deviation of the 21-day moving average. Yesterday’s evidence of weakening in our technicals has dissipated in the face of the post-FOMC rally.

June12 Eurodollar Our Trend indicator is crossing (going higher) the still falling 21-day moving average. Look for a move modestly higher in the nearby Eurodollars, but the upside is going to be limited due to the zero-rate bound and the Eurodollar’s correlation with the Fed’s (and other CBs) overnight rates.

All our directional indicators lean to pointing higher

As the June expiration approaches on this contract, its volatility should contract as its implied interest rate contracts to near the overnight rate.

For context into our thinking regarding the debt markets, we invite you to read our comments posted Monday, as it includes several days’ postings.

[url]http://techtalk.providiotrading.com/...ter/?req=viewd[/url]......

Seasonal Snapshot:

 Bonds: 15 and 30-yr patterns are modestly negative until April 28th. The 5-yr pattern moves in a generally, sideways pattern for the same period. On April 28th, all 3 start a move higher until about May 6.

Tens: move modestly lower until the above April 28th where they all move higher to the same May 6.

Twos: 3 patterns show negative bias into Apr 26th for a day or 2. Upward bias ensues until May 1 then volatile seasonals with no clear directional bias in any pattern until May 13. At that point, the 15 and 21-yr patterns clearly point higher until June 3. The 5-yr pattern peaks on May 8th and then trends lower until June 14th. The short-term has a brief upward bias from May 18-20th.

Metals:


Gold: 
26Apr Simply put, Gold is looking for direction and seems confused. All of our technical indicators are pointing higher, but they have also been unstable… flipping between positive and negative… rising and falling… since mid March. That said, the June contract has been in a falling channel since the $86 drop on 29Feb (below the 21-day moving average), currently bound by 1585-1665. A sustained break out above this formation would be a good first step toward confirming its long-term positive bias. The flattening 21-day moving average (currently 1652) has offered resistance for the last two weeks.

Additionally, our rising trend line support that extends back to Oct 2008 comes in around 1610. We are watching closely. This rising trend line forms the lower boundary of a large symmetrical triangle pattern that extends back to last Sep. Drawn from those highs at 1920, the upper boundary of the triangle is at 1750..

Seasonal Snapshot: All three patterns consolidate with a downward bias until the end of April, then modest strength into the last half of May.

Copper: 26Apr The July contract has given back this morning’s probe above the 200-day moving average (374.20), but it is trying to cement a positive turn in our Momentum indicator, which has been negative since the end of Jan.

Volume has been trending higher, supporting this last week’s strength. RSI is rising and has reached the 50 level from being Oversold last Thursday, 18Apr. Look for price resistance at RSI 60 or so as it has been failing there for almost 2 months.

Look for support at 3.62.3.63, where the market has repeatedly tested support, on a closing basis, dating back to 11Apr.

Resiatance is seen just above today’s highs at 3.70, stair stepping up to 3.725, and then 3.80.

Seasonal Snapshot: All our patterns are coming to the end of a consolidation near highs and then a modest lower bias until April 28th

Softs:

Cocoa: 26Apr The July contract needs to hurry up and continue its recent break out above a potential bull flag formation (2270). This would target a move to just above 2500, to the late January highs that would make a reversal likely. Falling trend line resistance comes in at about 2365. Before that, 2300 looms as a psychological level. All of our directional indicators are renewing their upward trajectories from last week. A return of Volume is supportive of Tuesday’s rally.

On the bearish side, the rally last week failed to make a higher high (2435 on 21Mar) after a lower low (2058 on 10Apr). Watch the falling 21-day moving average (2215) that has provided modest support for the last week.

Our Volatility measure is rising into above average levels.

A previous comment’s Cocoa remarks for context:

If this rally fails to go higher, and the previously identified triangle imposes itself as a continuation pattern, the formation projects a move down to 1460, similar to the action after last fall’s prolonged consolidation. A test of the Dec low at 2005, and psychological support is first in lin. ICE exchange stocks at 5yr highs should keep a negative tone to the market.

Seasonal Snapshot: A weak bias in the 15&26yr patterns lasts until May. The 5yr consolidates with a slight upward bias until 10May.

Coffee: 26Apr This morning’s consolidation of yesterday’s violent stab down, back below what, for now, seems to be a bottoming 21-day moving average (181.10), essentially puts the July contract back on its heels. Volume was much stronger on the decline. We remind readers that, on a closing basis, the market has found resistance at this average since breaking below on 20Jan.

The market needs to sustain a move above falling trend line resistance (183.50) that extends back to mid Jan to stay on track. A higher recent high, above the 04Apr Doji Candle day’s high of 193.00 would also help.

Declining certified stocks, a small carryover and large spec short interest leaves the market exposed to upside risk.

That said, as evidence of the negative dynamics, from 26Mar through 18Apr, our July Momentum indicator went positive. During this period, while there were probes higher, the July contract’s price actually declined about 6 cents (600 pts).

Support levels are seen at 177.30, 174.70 and 173.90.

If and when a reversion to a negative bias returns, we feel much lower prices are likely the result.

The Brazilian harvest is rumored to be starting at the end of April, earlier than normal, and may produce a record-sized crop.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 5-yr pattern continues in its falling Trend until April 26th. The 15 and 30-yr patterns turn higher on 4/16 until 4/22. Then it drops until April 26th.

Cotton: 2
6Apr The July contract is consolidating recent gains, but finding some support at the flattening 21-day moving average (90.70). The market remains in a generally falling channel that traces back to last June’s peak. Falling trend line resistance comes in at 94.30.

All of our technicals have turned higher, but we are troubled by trending lower Volume since last Wednesday’s stronger numbers.

Given the historical chart, look for resistance at 9330 and 9400. We see support levels near 9030, 8975, and then 8820.

Bulging carryover stocks, increasing global production and an early start to planting are all downside risks.

Seasonal Snapshot: The July contract’s strong downward bias in all three patterns lasts well into May.
 

Sugar: 26Apr A developing bearish engulfing pattern puts the pressure back on Sugar today. Our Trend and Momentum indicators are solidly negative. Old support (12Mar at 22.45) may offer new resistance on more strength. Additionally, the 38.2% retracement of the steep Mar-Apr decline coincides with a brief area of congestion last week and comes in at 22.78.

Wider view, the market has broken through last Dec low (21.95), which forms the lower boundary of a large descending triangle. This should offer near term resistance and target 21.00, which are the spring lows and 50% retracement of the larger rally from July 2010. The ultimate projection would be to the 17.00 level. A large spec long open interest and ample supplies keeps the market vulnerable to more weakness. A backdrop of rising supplies and bumper crops is another downside risk.

We show resistance at 2250, 2325, and 2375. Our support levels are seen at 2140, 2100, then 2065.

Seasonal Snapshot: The 5-yr pattern continues its move to lows on May 8th. The 15 and 30-yr patterns bottom on 4/16, then head higher until April 25th, where they start falling until May 5th.

 

Disclaimer:
A commodity and currency report brought to you by Providio Trading Consultants, Inc. There is risk in trading futures and options. One's financial suitability should be considered carefully before placing any trades. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Related to Providio’s Daily Futures Market Commentary for April 26, 2012
 
 
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