Union Budget 2009 - Whats Your Say !?

[Santosh Thakare]

UNION BUDGET 2009

View point for Union Budget 2009 as per C Rangarajan, former RBI Governor and Rajya Sabha Member,
you think that the slowdown provided an opportunity to go in for many reforms and the government failed to make use of the opportunity by leaving many issues untouched?

That is one of the best things about this budget. There are indications on what can be done and what will be done. The finance
minister is making it clear that there could be many things that could be done outside the budget. So let us wait.

You have to look at not only the overall government expenditure, but also the composition of government expenditure and the effectiveness of government expenditure. I am quite happy not only with the level of allocations, but also with distribution of the composition.

Talking specifically about fiscal deficit and FRBM targets. Should not the government have given a clear road map on how it is planning to bring down the deficit, which is currently at 6.8%?

Given the macro-economic implications, at the present situation, the higher fiscal deficit is unavoidable. Government expenditure is to be raised to meet the aggregate demand. Of course, the government could have announced the road map to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, which I think is a reasonable rate, from the current 6.8%.

Markets have witnessed a huge selloff on account of disappointment. How do you look at it?

As far as I see, the budget has been on expected lines. The budget, as a whole, is not a dampener to markets. FBT is abolished, corporate tax is unchanged, personal tax rates are also favourable.

There have been indications from government’s side that it should have addressed the issue of deregulation of fuel prices in the budget?

It’s a very significant issue, which is even linked to the household consumption and below poverty line status. I think petroleum deregulation is not an issue to be addressed at the time of budget. It should be addressed at the ministry level.

How long do you think will it take the economy to come back to the 9% growth trajectory?

By stimulating domestic demand, we can get 7-7.5% growth rate. But in order to achieve a 9%, which we achieved in the previous three years, we really need the global economy to improve. Unless the global economy improves, and our exports pick up, I do not think that we can really get to 9% rate of growth.

[Santosh Thakare]

Union Budget 2009-10 :VIEW POINT OF EXPERTER :

Union Budget 2009-10: Given global crisis, fiscal deficit is fine, says Deepak Parekh
Chairman, HDFC Ltd


A 6.7% GDP growth is commendable, given the global downturn, says Deepak Parekh

Are you disappointed with the fiscal deficit numbers?
There is no reason to be disappointed with the fiscal deficit numbers. In fact, if the fiscal deficit numbers had come in lower, one would have reasons to be sceptical. It is true that the fiscal deficit at 6.8% of GDP is unsustainable over the long run. The fiscal finances are a concern, especially if one looks at the combined fiscal deficit of the state and the Centre and if one factors in the off balance sheet items as well. But given the present global economic situation, there is a need to stimulate the Indian economy to ensure growth, despite it being a strain on fiscal finances. However, what is reassuring is that the government recognises the need to revert to the FRBM targets as soon as possible.

How do you see interest rates moving?
The banking system has ample liquidity. Banks continue to park huge cash surpluses at over Rs 1,20,000 crore under the reverse repo window of the RBI. Demand for credit needs to pick up and is clearly not in line with the liquidity available. I believe, at this juncture, there is scope to reduce interest rates. I expect the rates to go down by at least 50 basis points over next six months.

Will the budget support growth and create jobs?
Growth has been supported not only through this budget, but also by the earlier stimulus packages. A 6.7% GDP growth is commendable, given the global downturn. But certainly the thrust on infrastructure spending will generate employment on a large scale. The government’s NREGA scheme has also proved to be successful and the finance minister in his speech has mentioned that mechanisms for inclusive growth included creating about 12 million jobs per annum.

How do you see the demand for housing?
Given the acute shortage of housing, the demand is immense. To give a boost to rural housing, the finance minister has increased the allocation under the Indira Awas Yojna by 63%. The additional Rs 2,000 crore to NHB’s Rural Housing Fund for refinancing will also encourage rural housing. The JNNURM allocation has been increased, which would help towards the housing needs of the urban poor, besides the introduction of a new urban housing scheme announced by the President. So the government has focused on the housing sector. The markets perhaps anticipated an increase in the tax exemption limit on interest payments on a housing loan. This was not required.

Will the budget create an enabling environment for infrastructure finance?
One of the core issues for the long-term growth of the Indian economy is infrastructure


which needs an estimated $500 billion. This huge funding requirement can only be met through public-private partnerships. Therefore, increased infrastructure spending and additional outlays on the government’s flagship programmes are welcome moves

[Santosh Thakare]

Union Budget 2009 :VIEW PONIT OF T N Srinivasan, Professor of Economics, Yale University

T N Srinivasan, Professor of Economics, Yale University

His paper written along with Professor Jagadish Bhagwati on trade liberalisation, formed the basis of India's external sector reforms by Manmohan

Singh's team in 1991. T N Srinivasan, Samuel C Park Jr Professor of Economics at Yale University, who was in India on RBI's invitation on the World Statistics day, chats with on the country’s growth prospects and its unfinished agenda on reforms.

The economic survey indicates that India could return to a high-growth path soon if the global and, more specifically, the US economy revives soon. What’s your take on this?

The slowdown in India’s growth started before the full effect of the crisis was felt on the economy. The fast growth of 9.3% wasn’t sustainable and had to come down any way. It was only exacerbated by the crisis. So, if the world economy recovers, part of the slowdown on account of the global impact will probably reverse quickly. But there are serious problems in both the physical and human infrastructure spaces, and, unless these are addressed, a return to 9-10% sustained growth seems unlikely. So, we have to push for reforms as fast and as extensively as we can, to achieve fast and sustainable growth.

What is your view of the government’s plans on fiscal consolidation and a return to the FRBM Act targets?

The FRBM targets themselves were not credible. In 2004, the year after the FRBM Act was passed, the then finance minister pushed the pause button. If the government deviates from these targets at its will, they have no credibility. So, forget about FRBM. I don’t see any indication that the central government will get back on track towards fiscal consolidation. But, I would wait for the Budget on July 6 to see whether Pranab Mukherjee gives any credible signal at all for moving towards fiscal consolidation. I know he would use the excuse of the recession to justify the high public expenditure...and say the sum total of the stimuli put in place since late last year, stands at only half a per cent of the GDP recorded over the past two years... the usual handouts will continue.

So what do you expect?

The economic survey has some pointers. We need disinvestment of public enterprises... the government’s holding of 75% of bank assets is not healthy. Raising of FDI limits, something I have never fully understood, is the logic behind these caps. Take the case of SEZs. The Chinese did not have any hang-ups about FDI caps and labour laws and they used economies of scale by establishing large SEZs. We are doing none of that.

You were a part of the initial reforms process in 1991. A lot of your recommendations haven’t been implemented. What reforms do you feel the government should pursue?

Indeed, we took a decisive stance on globalisation in 1991, but we could have gone much farther, and have not. Fiscal consolidation, we thought, was on track from 1991 to 1996-97. Then everything reversed. I don’t know what Pranab’s Budget is going to bring about. I wouldn’t be surprised if he took the budget and the off-budget items deficit to around 10% or more closer to 12%. That is one of the areas that is disappointing.

When do you expect the global economy to be back on track?

You would recall that the crisis originated in the US housing sector and then spread to the rest of the world. So the crisis will be resolved when the sector gets back on track. Evidence so far suggests that it has not. Though data showed US home sales were up last month, many of them are properties that were foreclosed and sold. New homes sales have not picked up much. I do not see the bottom being reached for another year or so. Taking of global GDP, there again the rate of decline has slowed down. I would not be surprised if by the last quarter of 2009, we see a turnaround. If not, it will be the first quarter of 2010. But this is going to be a slow growth recovery.

[Santosh Thakare]

UNION BUDGET 2009 EXPERTS VIEW :

When do you expect the global economy to be back on track?

You would recall that the crisis originated in the US housing sector and then spread to the rest of the world. So the crisis will be resolved when the sector gets back on track. Evidence so far suggests that it has not. Though data showed US home sales were up last month, many of them are properties that were foreclosed and sold. New homes sales have not picked up much. I do not see the bottom being reached for another year or so. Taking of global GDP, there again the rate of decline has slowed down. I would not be surprised if by the last quarter of 2009, we see a turnaround. If not, it will be the first quarter of 2010. But this is going to be a slow growth recovery

The road ahead has just got smoother for highway developers. State-owned India Infrastructure Finance Company (IIFCL) will refinance 60% of

commercial bank loans for public-private projects over the next 15-18 months. The move would ease the tight liquidity in the market for road developers and speed up highway development.

“IIFCL and banks are now in a position to support projects involving a total investment of Rs 1,00,000 crore in infrastructure. In consultation with banks, IIFCL would evolve a takeout financing schemes to facilitate incremental lending in the sector,” said finance minister Pranab Mukherjee, adding he would ensure sufficient funds for the sector.

Under takeout financing, a few banks come together to take over loan portfolios, in turn. For example, if ICICI, SBI and PNB finance a long-term project for 15 years, by turn they will lend for five years.
But industry experts feel takeout financing would not help much, especially in the beginning. “This move will not bring much funds to the sector in the beginning, as the concept is still at a nascent stage, but it is a signal in the right direction. It will give some comfort to commercial banks to lend to the road sector,” said Soma Enterprise director Ankineedu Maganti.

The government also increased plan allocation to National Highways Development Authority (NHAI) for the national highway development programme by 23% to Rs 8,578 crore in the current financial year. Road transport and highways minister Kamal Nath has recently announced that 20 km of roads would be laid per day. He had proposed a road financing entity on the lines of Power Finance Corporation (PFC) and a Re 1 cess on petrol and diesel to fund highway projects. None of the proposals, however, figured in the Budget speech.

Road projects have failed to meet scheduled targets due to a shortage of funds, delay in land acquisition, law and order problems and default by developers. “I have urged my colleagues in central and state governments to remove policy, regulatory and institutional bottlenecks for speedy implementation of infrastructure projects,” Mr Mukherjee said.

OMG the FM jst gave us a missed call... ’ That was a young twitterbug alerting his friends about what he saw as budgetary attention to Young India.

OMG the FM jst gave us a missed call... ’ That was a young twitterbug alerting his friends about what he saw as budgetary attention to Young India.

Indeed , across campuses, the mood is of hope.

Fr Frazer Mascarenhas, principal of St Xavier’s College , Mumbai, describes the budget as “exciting” for allowing weaker sections access to higher education. IIT-Delhi director Surendra Prasad too sees the interest-free education loan scheme as an “empowerment mechanism” . As Hemanshu Sharma of IIMAhmedabad puts it, “Education should not remain a commodity for the affluent.”

The missing accent on primary education however, is glaring. “The government must reach out to these levels . It may not make news so easily as the opening of a new IIT, but it will benefit the country in the long run,” says Paul N Savio a student of IIM-Calcutta . But, Prof Asish K Bhattacharyya of IIM-C , feels the absence of a policy statement on education should not be taken as negative.

And the many tax sops, youngsters believe, will provide their parents with a nest egg for higher studies.
Says Sashi Kant Sharma of IIFT, Delhi: “The hike in the IT exemption limit will help increase disposable income.” He also feels the hike in infrastructure funds will help put India on the growth trajectory.

But, students are sceptical on many counts. Pallavi Gandhi wonders whether the subsidy for poor students will reach the beneficiaries.

Energy and conservation — pet issues of Gen Y — have been given a miss. Swati Maheshwari of Delhi points to the lack of concern towards ecology. “It has nothing concrete on climate change. The government has just shifted its river programme under the climate change head.”

Asha Palolil, an MBA student in St Joseph’s College, Bangalore asks why the FM has not given ample attention to pure sciences and research. “Now is the time when Isro and other premier research institutes are crying out for manpower.” she says. “Why have educational loan interest rates for women been lowered ?” asks Maria Burbey of Stella Maris, Chennai.

The verdict is that the FM has done a lot for students, a section of the salaried class, women and also for infrastructure . Meanwhile, the twitterbug is happy he can now buy a bluetooth dongle for his mobile phones. Accessories just got cheaper.

NEW DELHI: With the economic slowdown affecting exports and impacting capital flows, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said India wants a

concerted and well- coordinated global response to address systemic failures and to stimulate the real economy.

"The global financial and economic slowdown that we are witnessing is particularly detrimental for the development objectives of developing countries such as India. This has not been a crisis of our making, but we have had to bear its consequences," he said in a statement before leaving for Italy to attend the two-day Summit meeting of G-8 industrialised nations beginning July 9.

"The slowdown in the advanced economies has affected our exports, strengthened protectionist sentiments and impacted credit and capital flows. We would, therefore, like to see a concerted and well-coordinated global response to address systemic failures and to stimulate the real economy," the Prime Minister said.

During his four-day stay in Italy, Singh will also attend a meeting of the leaders of the G-5 group of 'outreach' countries comprising Brazil, China, Mexico and South Africa besides India.

The Prime Minister said, "In the longer run, we would like to see a much higher level of stability and sustainability in growth patterns of the developed world, and in international financial governance."

[Santosh Thakare]

UNION BUDGET 2009 :ATTACHED HERE :- INTERPRETATION BY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT EXPERT:

[kartik]

All Management Paradise members are invited to a Free Budget Analysis seminar @Welingkar Institute of Management

[m2venky]

Originally Posted by kartik

The Stock Market Tanks as Pranab Mukherjee says its a budget for Bharat



Corporate India not so disappointed says moneycontrol

this budget is good to see, well as compared to previous budgets this time budget focused inclusive growth, specifically in rural infras, education, agricultural schemes this all welcome, but pinhole is FDI, FII was not mentioned

[rocky.pnjb]

hi
the budegt 2009-2010 is not good not bad
its on average
on rating scale it will be given 5 to 6 out of 10

the main reason is
1) thier is no such exceed in exemption limits
2) the main tax exemption is give to person fall in income criteria more than 1000000 per annum
3) the name indicate AAM AADMI BUDGET
but their is no such about aam aadmi

no such remove of stt
but implement of GST crash the market
the stock market is not good it need some booster

thank u

[jigar pobari]

no thos is not the budget that was expected from pranab mukherjiioi as he was just giving a talk thaere was nnothing that special . as he new th situation is now of recession sooooo he needed to provide benefits to the all sector but he just did the tax reduction for local people which would just save 88rs which is not that good benefit .......

[funky_akanksha]

It doesnt say anything regarding the disinvestment policy of the government