Indian Share Market

ankitgokani

MP Guru
Hello MPites all of us knows that India Share Market is thru its tough times u can say the most volatile period in its history.
Where no predicton of any experts are working.Its not happening in India only but all over the world.

So whats next now

The FM says our fundamentals are strong we need not worry
some say wait for a year everything will be normal
some say its gonna be recession 2008
The global financial hurricane has swayed China and India only slightly, but the emerging Asian giants are not yet strong enough to drive a revival in world economic momentum, analysts say.


Different people have there different opinion so i want to know wats ur views and wats ur take cos we have many experts on MP who would like to comment on it:bigsmile:

Plz Note: Dont put ur ans in 1-2 Lines eloborate ur thought and if any prsn uses any technical terms than plz explain it as others wud also undstd its meaning

And plz dont request for project in this thread as it is a discussion thread
 

ROHAN KACHALIA

Par 100 posts (V.I.P)
Well definitely it’s a tough time for the stock markets, but I feel the main reason for this is GLOBALIZATION. If we had not globalized to this extent then the hard earned money of the investors would not have drained. But that’s a different matter altogether.

The point is, we are facing the heat of the global turmoil especially from the bankruptcy of the two famous I-bankers of the world. And when Fed tries to bail out the financial crunch in US by infusing $700 billion, there are chances that inflation rises up further and hence a negative effect on the growth of the economy. So if US slows down further, then we might even see Sensex close to 12000 points ofcourse not too soon.

Now coming to Rupee, it depreciated to a 2 year low on last Tuesday touching 46.99. And then RBI woke up to protect the importers and thus we see USD/INR at 45.70 (approx) levels. Now breaking of 45 levels can see one more round of intervention by RBI. And more importantly these importers and exporters are gaining arbitrage by booking Non Deliverable Forwards (NDF) in the off shore market and gaining 10-20 paisa and so on.

And now the safest heaven to invest is FD’s coz they offer a secured return after the maturity and then can reinvest the surplus into Stocks preferably diversified, so that losses are reduced.

And for those who are already stuck in the markets with huge losses, I suggest just go for a long vacation away from markets atleast for 6 months coz the sudden death of Wall Street could have a huge effect on the markets.
 
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manthan_479

Par 100 posts (V.I.P)
well i m not much of a finance person...but even i hav heard that Indias fundamentals are quite strong so we need not worry........so i wud like to do what exactly these fundamentals mean n hws its affecting the whole secne n does it hav ne relation to INFLAMATION....becos its on rise...............
 

ankitgokani

MP Guru
well Fundamentals are basics of the company like shares are traded at market price but fundamental analysis finds out its intrinsic value of its shares and buying or selling the stock based on that information ROI Cash flow are some of the things use to identify comapnies fundamentals

a nice example i came across
Think of the stock market as a shopping mall: stocks are the items for sale in the retail outlets. Technical analysts will ignore the goods for sale. Instead, they will keep an eye on the crowds as a guide for what to buy. If they notice shoppers congregating inside a computer shop, our technical analysts will try to buy as many PCs as they can, betting that the growing demand will push PC prices higher.

Fundamental analysts have a more staid approach. Their sights are set solely on the products in the mall. Shoppers are dismissed as an unreliable, emotional herd with no inkling of the real value of the goods for sale. Our fundamental analysts move slowly through the stores seeking the best deals. Once the crowd moves on from the PCs, they will take a closer look at the ones that were passed over.

Fundamental analysts might take a stab at determining the scrap value of the PC stripped down to its hard disk, memory cards, monitor and keyboard. In the stock market, this is akin to calculating the book value or liquidation price of a company.

They will also take a very close look at the quality of the PC. Is it going to last, or will it break down within a year? The fundamental analysts will pore over the specifications, scrutinize the manufacturer's warranty and consult consumer reports. Similarly, equity analysts check a company's balance sheet for financial stability.

Then, the fundamental analysts might try to understand the performance of the PC in terms of, say, processing power, memory or image resolution. These are like the forecast earnings and dividends identified from a company's income statement.

Finally, the fundamental analysts will put together all the data and come up with an 'intrinsic value' or value independent of the current sale price. If the sale price is less than the calculated intrinsic value, the fundamentalists will buy it. If not, they will either sell the PCs they already own or wait for prices to fall before buying another one.
 

kartik

Kartik Raichura
Staff member
figure that : BPO Sector's Contribution to GDP Indian IT - BPO Sector . Now once OBAMA is elected as president, he has vouched to SLAY outsourcing.

More than 50 % of india's population lives below poverty line. 20 % manages to survive and the rest are doing comparitively well. The salaries of managerial positions are over-rated and will be aligned to reality in near future.

Global recession is already here.

Club it all with high inflation and non condusive policies for SME's, the Stock markets are going nowhere :)
 

BizBlogged

New member
Share prices and Markets reflect the prevailing economic environment and their relationships with individual consumers of the world. It is difficult, hence, to pin-point a short-term solution to improve Indian stock markets.
 

anteshk

New member
its a good time to invest because the shares of every company is going down and now u r in a position to buy stocks of certain good companies which will ultimately rise once the financial positions get good strong.
 

balli_di_gali

New member
I would like to ask some questions to the experts who expressed their observations here.

Firstly, where is this money (foreign investor's fund) going when it is getting withdrawn from the Indian stock markets?

Why is India's and China's GDP is lowering where the domestic consumption is always high?

Aren't India and European countries on the same path of recession as USA? Because when USA felt the coming of recession, the Federal Bank reduced the interest rates and the same thing is now done by RBI and European Banks too.

Should we limit the features of Globalization to such a level that the markets of countries get insulated and a recession in one major country does not adversly affect the rest of the business world?

How can this situation be rectified and can be avoided in the future?
 

ankitgokani

MP Guru
I would like to ask some questions to the experts who expressed their observations here.

Firstly, where is this money (foreign investor's fund) going when it is getting withdrawn from the Indian stock markets?

Why is India's and China's GDP is lowering where the domestic consumption is always high?

Aren't India and European countries on the same path of recession as USA? Because when USA felt the coming of recession, the Federal Bank reduced the interest rates and the same thing is now done by RBI and European Banks too.

Should we limit the features of Globalization to such a level that the markets of countries get insulated and a recession in one major country does not adversly affect the rest of the business world?

How can this situation be rectified and can be avoided in the future?



thanks for reply how the problem can be rectified thats what we are disscussing over here no 1 seems to have a solution nor does the FM of india :caked:
 

Claude90

New member
The Indian share market is down 30% and many are wondering whether their decision to invest in the stock market was right. Well, we should remember the dictum whatever goes up comes down and that applies to stock market as well. Most people fail to understand how much their investment has appreciated in the last four years.
 

Kalpana Heliya

Par 100 posts (V.I.P)
Hi Ankit...
Firstly very good issue raised here....n m quite surprised how did this issue catch my eye so late????

Well We are in an age when every Tom, Dick and Harry talks about the stock market and the sensex. ‘’How much is the sensex at?’’ has become a question as ubiquitous as “What’s the score?” asked when India plays cricket.
But the men who really matter don’t seem to have any clue. Our Economist-Prime Minister confesses he does not understand how the share markets behave. Our Finance Minister too takes recourse in highlighting the fact as to how strong India is on its economic fundamentals. The ship of Indian economy is almost on an even keel. It may be worst, but it won’t sink. Predicting the Sensex is much like astrological predictions.

In such a scenario it is very difficult to say who will salvage the world from the economic crisis. It is also difficult to say who will spark hope at the end of the tunnel seeing which the stock markets may surge. Whether it is Republican McCain or Democrat Obama, both will find the going equally tough.

Well on our Economy front, three things will happen as of now.

(1)First, foreign funding will be reduce due to global liquidity crunch,
(2)Interest rates abroad will rise,
(3) and the rupee will depreciate as the existing PNs will exit the country.

In panic, the govt has made the PNs even easier to use, but in this situation of uncertainty that will not help much. All that PNs will do anyway is to pump rupees in the system and cause inflation. This will affect our investment and the cost of imports that are essential for our export industries. This is why while the dollar is sinking; the rupee dollar rate has risen from Rs.39 to Rs.49 in juz a month. Therefore, with the rise in the import cost due to devaluation of the rupee, we should expect a deceleration in the growth rate of GDP and a recession till correctives are applied. While the RBI has cut the CRR claiming that step would bring down the interest rate, the prime lending rate has actually gone up from 10% to 12%, reflecting the tight liquidity position after foreign inflows have slowed down.

According to my opinion the Govt should use the Foreign Exchange reserves in US treasury bonds under such circumstances, which will help the Indians to buy up through mergers and acquisitions US Companies that are up for sale. But, for long-term financial stability India will have to embark on financial reforms which have been on hold since 1996. Also...
(1) A commission should be empowered to have a re-look at the budget allocations and their actual deployment, and suggest restructuring.
(2) All State Electricity Boards should be abolished and replaced by private operators which have to tender for it and make handsome deposits.
(3) The law should require that the capital account in the budget should always be in deficit or balanced, while the revenue accounts should be in surplus.


Financial Crisis in the market economies of democratic countries are not unusual. It is also not unusual for such economies to make a policy corrections and come out of crises. During this decade itself the West went through two crises: the first was in 2000, the “dotcom bust”, and the second was after the 9/11 terror attacks. But the Market Economies came out of it. Infact we saw a boom between 2003 and 2008. The important fact, therefore to remember about all these crises is that all affected market economies do recover, and prospered subsequently. :lol:
 

justbalu

Par 100 posts (V.I.P)
Hello MPites all of us knows that India Share Market is thru its tough times u can say the most volatile period in its history.
Where no predicton of any experts are working.Its not happening in India only but all over the world.

So whats next now

The FM says our fundamentals are strong we need not worry
some say wait for a year everything will be normal
some say its gonna be recession 2008
The global financial hurricane has swayed China and India only slightly, but the emerging Asian giants are not yet strong enough to drive a revival in world economic momentum, analysts say.


Different people have there different opinion so i want to know wats ur views and wats ur take cos we have many experts on MP who would like to comment on it:bigsmile:

Plz Note: Dont put ur ans in 1-2 Lines eloborate ur thought and if any prsn uses any technical terms than plz explain it as others wud also undstd its meaning

And plz dont request for project in this thread as it is a discussion thread
thanks for your views on the indian share market for the business students will definetly helpful
 

spjcm

New member
I read recently about Jhunjhunwala's famous comment on sensex to climb to 24000 mark by 2012 and he is hence planning to be bullish by year end.

We would however definitely want to wait and look for the market performance by Mid year 2009 as to how far it has climbed.
 
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