|  Inflation to peak near 14%, RBI action likely: Chris Wood -
August 23rd, 2008
He said he would up India's weightage by 3% points to overweight. He maintains a cautious view on India in the near-term and feels India’s inflation may rise to just below 14% before peaking. He sees further monetary tightening.
Crude oil moving above USD 150 per barrel would up the risk of the Sensex breaking below 12000 levels, he said. However, he feels India's vulnerability to oil won't last long, given RIL's likely gas production.
Wood sees capitulation in residential property sooner or later and said the best buy right now is in the government bond market. The Indian stock market picture will be clearer by mid-2009, he said.
Chris Wood, said, “Oil and the commodity complex in general have commenced a medium-term correction. This would be a major positive for India. This is why Greed & Fear will this week raise India's weighting in the relative-return portfolio by 3% points to an ‘overweight’ (position). We still prefer to own Indian financials rather than others in Asia ex-Japan absolute-return portfolio. We will initiate a 4% weighting in HDFC Bank A further change is to replace ACC and Ambuja Cements with a 3% investment in Grasim.”
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