MARKET IS AGAIN ON BULL RUN AFTER A HALT

by Market Magnify Investment Adviser & Research Pvt. Ltd. on Thursday 7 December 2017, 3:56 PM | Category: Financial Analysis| View: 56 views
 
 
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 NIFTY FUTURE

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

Nifty future continue to remain under pressure after expiry of November month contracts as investors is waiting for some sight of relief from RBI monetary policy. We hardly saw any relevant buying interest in F&O segment. During this period, FIIs formed good amount of short positions in index and stock futures along with decent longs in index put options.

The first week of December has been one of the biggest weekly fall for our markets in the current calendar year. During the week, there were two occasions when US bourses clocked immense single day gains; but, quite surprisingly, our markets shrugged of these optimistic cues and remained under pressure on the following days. Eventually, the Nifty went on to close almost at the lowest point of the week.

Nifty Rollovers is at 63.28% which is below its 3 month average of 68.61% and in terms of open interest as well; suggesting decent amount of positions have been lightened up ahead of the upcoming events like RBI policy, US Fed meet and more importantly, Gujarat poll results. FIIs too refrained from rolling their positions; resulting into a decline in their index futures open interest by 37% series on series. However, they rolled over good amount of their short positions formed in stock futures last series.

The Union government on 5th of December released the “Mid-Term Review of Foreign Trade Policy” (2015-20) to focus on strategies to encourage exports. According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the revised FTP focuses on the goal of exploring new markets and new products as well as on increasing India's share in the traditional markets and products.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Nifty future is currently trading at very crucial levels near trend line and 200 days moving average support level on daily chart, in last week or so market went down sharply to test the support levels, If we closely observe Nifty future chart 10100 was one of the strong support level, which market has breached on 6th of Dec.

But the question raises Nifty future has breached the support level due to concerns on RBI monetary policy. If we see from another angle it might be false breakout and market can bounce back, catching the bears on the wrong foot as market has to breach trend line and 200 days moving average support level.

Fundamentals are strong for Indian market as back to back reforms and rating from Baa3 to Baa2 upgrade by Moody's help Indian market to stay strong and gain momentum.

Technically, Nifty future may move up above the levels of 10100 and it could test the levels of 10200 & 10350 in the Dec month expiry. Technical stop loss should be at 9970.

NIFTY FUTURE  DAILY CHART

nifty7

Pivots Points Supports and Resistance of Nifty Future

Resistance 1-10187                         Support 1-10051

Resistance 2- 10227                        Support 2-9962

Resistance 3- 10315                        Support 3-9874

 

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